Bitcoin (BTC) remains on track to near $50,000 around next year’s block subsidy halving event, longtime analyst Filbfilb says.
In his latest interview with Cointelegraph, the co-founder of trading suite DecenTrader shares his current thoughts on BTC price action.
Filbfilb: Bitcoin has given “strong indicator” of bear market breakout
Bitcoin has well and truly cemented its exit from a sub-$30,000 trading range, which characterized the market for much of 2023, Filbfilb believes.
Having overcome a multitude of resistance levelsthe question for Bitcoin bulls now is how price action will turn out into the halving.
Due in April 2024, less than five months remains until the event, and Filbfilb argues that a “reasonable” bullish target could lie at just below the $50,000 mark. This echoes assumptions from his previous interview in early September, when BTC/USD traded at just below $26,000.
That said, a drawdown could easily come first, testing the morale of those who might already be used to BTC price upside.
Continue reading to discover what the coming months could have in store for Bitcoin from a technical price perspective.
Cointelegraph (CT): Do you think that BTC has definitively broken out of its previous range below $30,000? How would you gauge the strength of the various moving averages (MAs) which previously acted as resistance?
Filbfilb (FF): The 20, 50, 100 and 200-week simple moving averages are all around $30,000 at the moment. They also lie toward the top of the trading range below $30,000 and above $25,000, in which Bitcoin spent 200 days or so.
The two combined would suggest that there will be buying interest below and together are a strong indicator of a breakout and trend change from the two-year bear market.
CT: What’s your timeline for a Bitcoin ETF approval and what do you think the event would do to price?
FF: My view on the ETF remains the same, which is that it will continue to be delayed as long as possible, but a spot ETF is inevitable. The major players are not wasting their time and so it continues to be a matter of when.
Given their position on market manipulation I wouldn’t be surprised to see the approval to intentionally come from left field.
CT: Where would you now draw the point of control on the BTC price chart? What resistance and support (R/S) levels are you watching?
FF: This really depends on the timeframe. The last couple of years suggest $26,000 is an important point of control; over the last six months, it would suggest closer to $27,000.
There is resistance around $38,000-$41,000; a lot of volume was traded there before many of the implosions we saw among crypto entities. Some people will exit, others will consider redeploying capital under a new environment. This is a clear area of contention.
CT: In our last interview you were eyeing a BTC price boost as part of pre-halving action in Q4. Has that perspective changed much since? Some are concerned that Q1 2024 might have the opposite effect.
FF: I think it is fair to say that we have seen that price appreciation in Q4. The cyclical model implies that Q1 2024 could pull back before another run into the halving.
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A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the bear market — $46,000-$48,000 — would be a reasonable technical target assumption from a bullish perspective in my opinion.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
