By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

A weaker dollar, subdued inflation and heightened tensions in the Middle East are reshaping the crypto market’s trajectory, giving bitcoin (BTC) room to run in the future, while pushing it down in the near term. While the largest cryptocurrency is lower today, analysts say a price of $200,000 is in play by year-end.

One influence is the U.S. interest rate. Consumer prices rose less than forecast last month, increasing the chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which would bolster risk assets including cryptocurrencies. With core inflation stable at 2.8%, traders now largely expect two cuts this year beginning in September, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.

Then there’s the Middle East. The U.S. said yesterday it was moving people out of the region over heightened security risk and amid reports Israel is considering military action against Iran. Earlier today, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nation’s nuclear watchdog, ruled that Iran was in breach of its non-proliferation duties for the first time in 20 years.

With tensions rising, investors are ditching the dollar in favor of safe havens including gold and the Swiss franc as they position for a potential conflict. That has also pushed down cryptocurrency prices, with BTC losing 1.7% of its value in the last 24 hours and the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index retreating 2.25%.

“Bitcoin continues to trade like a classic risk-on asset, responding sharply to macro tailwinds,” Boris Alergant, head of institutional partnerships at Babylon and a former Ripple and JPMorgan executive, told CoinDesk.

“That said, the broader picture for BTC remains optimistic,” Alergant said. “More institutions are emulating MicroStrategy’s BTC treasury strategy, creating a steady base of structural demand.”

Still, the SEC’s recent willingness to greenlight ETF applications tied to altcoins such as solana, led to predictions of an “altcoin ETF summer” while signals of regulatory friendliness toward staking and protocol-based yield helped lift DeFi tokens.

“This marks the first time the SEC has shown coordinated openness to both layer-1 assets and the DeFi ecosystem,” Youwei Yang, chief economist at BIT Mining, told CoinDesk in an emailed statement.

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, pointed to $900 million in new digital asset fund inflows this week, suggesting that investor confidence is rebounding.

“This resurgence comes as bitcoin trades near all-time highs and global money supply conditions loosen, suggesting there could be further upside potential for digital asset prices more broadly,” he said.

Keep in mind, though, the balance of global events. Tame inflation could help boost risk assets, yet unexpected escalation in the Middle East could reverse those gains. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • June 12, 10 a.m.: Coinbase’s State of Crypto Summit 2025 (New York). Livestream link.
  • June 16: 21Shares executes a 3-for-1 share split for ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB); ticker and NAV remain unchanged.
  • June 16: Brazil’s B3 exchange launches USD-settled ether (0.25 ETH) and solana (5 SOL) futures contracts, approved by Brazil’s securities regulator, the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) and benchmarked to Nasdaq indices.
• Macro
  • June 12, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases May producer price inflation data.
    • Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. -0.4%
    • Core PPI YoY Est. 3.1% vs. Prev. 3.1%
    • PPI MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. -0.5%
    • PPI YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.4%
  • June 12, 3 p.m.: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census releases May inflation data.
    • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 2.8%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 47.3%
  • June 15-17: G7 2025 Summit (Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • June 23 (TBC): HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE), post-market

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
• Unlocks
  • June 13: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.33% of its circulating supply worth $12.44 million.
  • June 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.79% of its circulating supply worth $17.06 million.
  • June 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.04% of its circulating supply worth $10.65 million.
  • June 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.91% of its circulating supply worth $35.74 million.
  • June 17: ZKsync (ZK) to unlock 20.91% of its circulating supply worth $41.78 million.
  • June 17: ApeCoin (APE) to unlock 1.95% of its circulating supply worth $11.10 million.
• Token Launches
  • June 12: Coinbase to list Fartcoin (FARTCOIN), Subsquid (SQD) and PancakeSwap (CAKE).
  • June 12: Ethena (ENA) and Solayer (LAYER) to be listed on Binance.US
  • June 16: Advised deadline to unstake stMATIC as part of Lido on Polygon’s sunsetting process ends
  • June 26: Coinbase to delist Helium Mobile (MOBILE), Render (RNDR), Ribbon Finance (RBN) and Synapse (SYN).

Conferences

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

• SPX6900 (SPX), one of many AI agent memecoins that spawned in the latter half of 2024, rocketed to a record high of $1.71 on Wednesday, defying a wider market sell-off prompted by political tensions involving Iran.
• The project’s goal is to flip the entire U.S. stock market in terms of capitalization and while it’s a few trillion dollars away, it has amassed a $1.7 billion market cap.
• Crypto analyst and social media personality Murad famously racked up a $40 million unrealized loss earlier this year. That loss has become a $55 million gain due to the token’s ascent.
• SPX remains one of just a handful of altcoins that are positive over the past 24 hours as much of the market continues to reel over fears that a fighting could escalate in the Middle East. Gold and oil prices rose significantly overnight, which is historically a sign of impending conflict.
• CoinMarketCap’s AI agent memecoin sector is down by 3.5%.

Derivatives Positioning

• Bitcoin options open interest on Deribit has reached $36.7 billion, the highest level seen this month.
• The dominant expiry remains June 27 with over $13.8 billion in notional open interest, and bullish call positioning continuing to cluster at the $140,000 strike.
• The put/call ratio stands at 0.60, reflecting a moderate bias toward calls, though less so than in recent sessions.
• Ether options open interest has climbed to a yearly high of $6.87 billion on Deribit. More than $2.38 billion in notional value is tied to the June 27 expiry, with calls heavily concentrated at the $3,000 strike where $614 million is positioned.
• The put/call ratio sits at 0.45, indicating a strong preference for upside exposure into the quarter-end.
• BTC funding rates have stabilized across major venues, with Deribit at 12.84% APR, Bybit at 10.75%, and Binance at 8.12%, according to data from Velo. This supports the view that long positioning remains elevated, but not at extremes.
• Aggregate futures open interest stands at $55.4 billion across Binance, Bybit, OKX, Deribit and Hyperliquid with Binance accounting for $23.3 billion of that total, based on Velo data.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 1.26% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $107,534.98 (24hrs: -1.77%)
• ETH is down 2.21% at $2,753.40 (24hrs: -0.8%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 2.05% at 3,198.06 (24hrs: -2.52%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 2 bps at 3.05%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0075% (8.1731% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.57% at 98.07
• Gold futures are up 1.26% at $3,385.80
• Silver futures are down 0.54% at $36.06
• Nikkei 225 closed down 0.65% at 38,173.09
• Hang Seng closed down 1.36% at 24,035.38
• FTSE is down 0.15% at 8,851.13
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.87% at 5,346.38
• DJIA closed on Wednesday unchanged at 42,865.77
• S&P 500 closed down 0.27% at 6,022.24
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.50% at 19,615.88
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.37% at 26,524.16
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up +1.42% at 2,625.01
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 4 bps at 4.39%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.41% at 6,004.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.33% at 21,815.50
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.60% at 42,649.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 64.07 (-0.08%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02562 (0.43%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 913 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $54.7
• Total Fees: 4.76 BTC / $521,445
• CME Futures Open Interest: 150,075 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 31.9 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 9.04%

Technical Analysis

• Solana’s sol (SOL) failed to find acceptance above the 200-day exponential moving average on the daily timeframe, leading to a deviation back below key moving averages. The 100-day EMA is currently providing support.
• Notably, SOL closed below Monday’s high in the previous session, presenting a clean setup for a Monday Range strategy. If the pullback continues, Monday’s low at $149.68 serves as a key downside target.
• This level also aligns with a weekly demand zone (order block), potentially acting as a strong support area.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $387.11 (-1.04%), -1.47% at $381.43 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $250.68 (-1.67%), -1.11% at $247.90
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $117.2 (+10.66%), unchanged in pre-market
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$26.42 (-3.4%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.35 (-0.85%), -2.08% at $16.01
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $10.55 (+0.96%), -1.42% at $10.40
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $12.25 (-4.07%), -1.22% at $12.10
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.97 (-1.58%), -1.6% at $9.81
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $20 (-1.38%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $31.72 (+0.7%), -0.69% at $31.50
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $31.08 (-7.91%), +1.38% at $31.51

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flow: $164.6 million
• Cumulative net flows: $45.20 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.21 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: $240.3 million
• Cumulative net flows: $3.76 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.84 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The chart from TheTie shows bitcoin generally moved in the same direction as the U.S. equity market as measured by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust.
• The cryptocurrency is nevertheless more volatile than the equity benchmark.
• Bitcoin briefly decoupled around April as it sold off while equities were relatively steady.

While You Were Sleeping

• Bitcoin at $200K by Year-End Is Now Firmly in Play, Analyst Says After Muted U.S. Inflation Data (CoinDesk): Matt Mena says bitcoin could benefit from improving macro clarity, institutional adoption, treasury demand and state-level reserve programs that may boost ETF inflows and strengthen its role in global portfolios.
• Strong Uptake at 10-Year U.S. Debt Sale Eases Demand Concerns, 30-Year Sale’s Up Next (CoinDesk): Strong demand for 10-year Treasuries countered concerns over waning appetite for U.S. debt, now above $36 trillion, while some analysts cited bitcoin and gold as hedges against mounting fiscal risks.
• Marines to Deploy on L.A. Streets Within Two Days With Authority to Detain Civilians (Reuters): The 700 Marines have completed training in deescalation and crowd control and will join National Guard forces to help protect federal personnel and property under Title 10 of U.S. Code.
• Trump Is Pushing Allies Away and Closer to Each Other (The New York Times): The U.K., France, Canada and other mid-sized allies are deepening cooperation as Trump’s unilateralism and tariff policy strain their longstanding ties with the U.S.
• Where Russia Is Advancing in Ukraine and What It Hopes to Gain (The Wall Street Journal): Russia made its largest monthly gains since late 2022 in May, aiming to convince Ukraine’s allies that continued military and financial aid is pointless because Russia’s victory is inevitable.
• Mercurity Fintech Plans $800M Bitcoin Treasury, Eyes Russell 2000 Inclusion (CoinDesk): The company said it will use the funds to acquire bitcoin, secure it with blockchain-native custody, and integrate it into a platform combining tokenized treasuries and staking services.

In the Ether