By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin's Asian session bounce from $117,500 ran out of steam near $119,200 during European hours, extending two weeks of directionless trading. The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index traded 1.4% lower over 24 hours, with the broader CD80 gauge reporting a 4.6% decline, indicating pronounced weakness in altcoins.

Against the background of a flat BTC market, the awakening of long-dormant bitcoin whale wallets is raising concerns about potential profit-taking by seasoned investors. According to Whale Alert, an address that was dormant for over 12 years moved 343 BTC in early Asian hours.

Meanwhile, Ethereum Treasury protocol ETH Strategy, designed to provide leveraged exposure to ether, raised 12,342 ETH ($46.5 million) in its prelaunch funding. The fundraising operation targeted a diverse range of investor profiles through private and public sales, as well as puttable warrants.

Speaking of ether, its recent rally has sparked renewed enthusiasm in risky corners of the crypto market, including CryptoPunks, the Ethereum-based 10,000-piece pixel-art NFT collection. The floor price for CryptoPunks topped $200,000 for the first time in over a year, marking a 160% growth since August last year. (More on this in the Token Talk section).

Futures tied to Solana-based joke token FARTCOIN witnessed large liquidations Monday as the token's price dropped over 10%. The long liquidations tallied $11.39 million, the largest for the year, Coinglass data show. Futures on the token had zoomed into top 10 rankings last week, pointing to a build of speculative excesses in the crypto market.

In traditional markets, the dollar index briefly topped 99.00, the highest since June 23. A continued recovery in the U.S. currency could cap upside in BTC. Former Bank of Japan Governor Hiroshi Nakaso said the central bank might resume interest-rate increases, and the U.S. and China are meeting in Stockholm to continue trade talks. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • July 31, 12 p.m.: A live webinar featuring Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Bitzenship founder Aleesandro Palombo discussing bitcoin’s potential to become a global reserve currency amid dedollarization trends. Registration link.
  • Aug. 1: The Helium Network (HNT), now running on Solana, undergoes its halving event, cutting annual new token issuance to 7.5 million HNT.
  • Aug. 1: Hong Kong’s Stablecoins Ordinance takes effect, introducing a licensing regime to regulate stablecoin activities in the city.
  • Aug. 1: New Bretton Woods Labs will launch BTCD, which it says is the first fully bitcoin-backed stablecoin, on the Elastos (ELA) mainnet, a decentralized blockchain secured by merged mining with bitcoin and overseen by the Elastos Foundation.
  • Aug. 15: Record date for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who meet pre-distribution requirements.
• Macro
  • Day 2 of 2: U.S. and Chinese officials meet in Stockholm for a third round of trade talks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng lead discussions focused on preventing further tariff escalations. While extending the tariff truce set to expire Aug. 12 is a key goal, the meeting also aims to lay the groundwork for future negotiations and a possible leaders’ summit later this year.
  • July 29, 10 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases June U.S. labor market data (the JOLTS report).
    • Job Openings Est. 7.55M vs. Prev. 7.7691M
    • Job Quits Prev. 3.293M
  • July 29, 10 a.m.: The Conference Board (CB) releases July U.S. consumer confidence data.
    • CB Consumer Confidence Est. 95.8 vs. Prev. 93
  • July 30, 8 a.m.: Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases (preliminary) Q2 GDP growth data.
    • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 0.2%
    • GDP Growth Rate YoY Est. -0.1% vs. Prev. 0.8%
  • July 30, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases (advance estimate) Q2 GDP data.
    • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 2.4% vs. Prev. -0.5%
    • GDP Price Index QoQ Est. 2.4% vs. Prev. 3.8%
    • GDP Sales QoQ Prev. -3.1%
    • PCE Prices QoQ Prev. 3.7%
    • Real Consumer Spending QoQ Prev. 0.5%
  • July 30, 9:45 a.m.: The Bank of Canada (BoC) announces its monetary policy decision and publishes the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. The press conference follows at 10:30 a.m. Livestream link.
    • Policy Interest Rate Est. 2.75% Prev. 2.75%
  • July 30, 2 p.m.: The Federal Reserve announces its monetary policy decision. Federal funds rates are expected to remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%. Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference follows at 2:30 p.m.
  • July 30, 5:30 p.m.: Brazil’s central bank, Banco Central do Brasil, announces its monetary policy decision.
    • Selic Rate Est. 15% vs. Prev. 15%
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • July 29: PayPal Holdings (PYPL), pre-market, $1.30
  • July 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market, $0.31
  • July 31: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $1.39
  • July 31: Reddit (RDDT), post-market, $0.19
  • July 31: Sequans Communications (SQNS), pre-market
  • Aug. 5: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), pre-market, $0.19
  • Aug. 7: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.67
  • Aug. 7: Coincheck (CNCK), post-market
  • Aug. 7: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, -$0.08
  • Aug. 27: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $1.00

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Aavegotchi DAO is voting on funding three new features for the official decentralized application: a Wearable Lendings UI, Gotchis Batch Lending and a BRS Optimizer. Voting ends July 29.
  • Balance DAO is voting on deploying Balancer v3 on HyperEVM. Voting ends July 29.
  • Euler DAO is voting to activate currently disabled fees in the Euler Lending protocol. Voting ends July 30.
  • NEAR Protocol is voting on potentially reducing NEAR’s inflation from 5% to 2.5%. Two-thirds of validators must approval the proposal for it to pass, and if so it could be implemented by late Q3. Voting ends Aug. 1.
  • Compound DAO is voting to select its next Security Service Provider (SSP). Delegates are choosing between ChainSecurity & Certora, and Cyfrin. Voting ends Aug. 5.
  • July 29, 10 a.m.: Ether.fi to host a bi-quarterly analyst call.
• Unlocks
  • July 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $24 million.
  • Aug. 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 1.27% of its circulating supply worth $173.78 million.
  • Aug. 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.64% of its circulating supply worth $25.17 million.
  • Aug. 9: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating supply worth $14.34 million.
  • Aug. 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.73% of its circulating supply worth $53.61 million.
• Token Launches
  • July 29: Spheron Network (SPON) to be listed on MEXC, Bitget, Gate.io and others.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through Aug. 31.

• Day 2 of 2: TWS Conference 2025 (Singapore)
• Aug. 6-7: Blockchain.Rio 2025 (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
• Aug. 6-10: Rare EVO (Las Vegas)
• Aug. 7-8: bitcoin++ (Riga, Latvia)
• Aug. 9-10: Baltic Honeybadger 2025 (Riga, Latvia)
• Aug. 9-10: Conviction 2025 (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• CryptoPunks posted $24.6 million in weekly trading volume, the highest since March 2024 and 416% more than the prior week.
• The floor price jumped to 47.5 ETH from 40 ETH and the average sale price climbed to $182,000 from $140,000, signaling strong demand for higher-end Punks.
• The rally was likely triggered by GameSquare’s $5.15 million acquisition of Punk #5577, one of just 24 Ape Punks, which the firm purchased using newly issued preferred shares.
• GameSquare (GAME), the Nasdaq-listed parent of FaZe Clan, became the first public company to finance an NFT acquisition with equity, valuing the Punk at ~3x the floor at the time of purchase.
• The transaction reframed the Punk as a yield-bearing treasury asset, sparking renewed institutional and high-net-worth interest across the collection.
• The deal effectively positioned CryptoPunks as balance-sheet worthy collectibles, triggering fresh bids and elevating the profile of NFTs as corporate-grade digital assets.
• The sharp revaluation of blue-chip NFTs may create a narrative tailwind for other top-tier collections as corporate treasuries explore non-traditional digital stores of value.

Derivatives Positioning

• XRP's perpetual futures open interest continues to drop along with the price, indicating that the decline is led by an unwinding of bullish long bets rather than fresh shorts.
• Global futures open interest in BTC and ETH remains elevated near a record $80 billion and $58 billion, respectively, suggesting scope for price volatility.
• The so-called altcoin season seems to have fizzled out as BTC's annualized perpetual funding rate of 10% exceeds that of XRP and other top altcoins.
• Some nervousness has creeped into Deribit-listed BTC options, where front-end risk reversals showed a put bias. ETH risk reversals showed a bias for calls (that is, for upside) across all tenors.
• Block flows over the OTC network Paradigm featured a short position in the $110K BTC put expiring on Aug. 8 and butterfly trades.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 0.61% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $118,757.92 (24hrs: -0.12%)
• ETH is up 2.24% at $3,872.65 (24hrs: -0.6%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 1.07% at 4,038.53 (24hrs: -1.92%%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 4 bps at 2.9%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0153% (16.7535% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.11% at 98.74
• Gold futures are up 0.42% at $3,323.90
• Silver futures are up 0.36% at $38.36
• Nikkei 225 closed down 0.79% at 40,674.55
• Hang Seng closed down 0.15% at 25,524.45
• FTSE is up 0.38% at 9,115.95
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.96% at 5,388.73
• DJIA closed on Monday down 0.14% at 44,837.56
• S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,389.77
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.33% at 21,178.58
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.32% at 27,405.42
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.65% at 2,573.40
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1 bps at 4.41%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.22% at 6,437.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.39% at 23,581.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.14% at 45,073.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 61.25% (-0.24%)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03259 (1.34%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 933 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $59.21
• Total Fees: 4.20 BTC / $498,556
• CME Futures Open Interest: 141,550 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 35.7 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 10.11%

Technical Analysis

• The dollar index is probing the Ichimoku cloud resistance, having bottomed out near 97 this month.
• A move above the cloud is needed to confirm the bullish shift in momentum, failing which, the broader downtrend will likely resume.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $403.8 (-0.51%), +1.14% at $408.39 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $379.49 (-3.11%), +0.53% at $381.50
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $185.36 (-3.89%), +1.63% at $188.39
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $29.6 (-3.24%), +1.52% at $30.05
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $17.16 (-0.52%), +0.99% at $17.33
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.51 (-0.21%), +0.34% at $14.56
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.74 (-0.11%), unchanged in pre-market
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $12.03 (+1.78%), +0.42% at $12.08
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $26.13 (-1.62%), -0.8% at $25.92
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $39.25 (+3.07%), +1.27% at $39.75
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $33.21 (+0.58%), -1.36% at $32.76
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $20.92 (-4.84%), -0.65% at $20.79

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: $157.1 million
• Cumulative net flows: $54.95 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.07 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $65.2 million
• Cumulative net flows: $9.42 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~3.86 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• Fartcoin longs, or bullish bets, worth over $11 million were liquidated Monday, the largest tally for the year.
• Shorts, or bets on declines, accounted for a small portion of total liquidations, a sign leverage was heavily skewed bullish in anticipation of a continued price rise.

While You Were Sleeping

• Billionaire Ray Dalio Backs 15% Allocation to Bitcoin and Gold Amid U.S. Debt Spiral (CoinDesk): The shift from sticking 2% in these assets to 15% reflects concern over soaring U.S. borrowing needs and dollar debasement, driven by $12 trillion in projected Treasury issuance over the next year.
• Bitcoin Demand Shift: Coinbase's 60-Day BTC Premium Streak Is at Risk (CoinDesk): This premium, which measures price divergence with Binance, turned negative Tuesday for the first time since late May, signaling weaker U.S. institutional demand and supporting the case for a deeper pullback.
• A Divided Fed Eyes Future Rate Cuts but Won’t Move This Week (The Wall Street Journal): FOMC members are split between cutting now, waiting for more data or holding out for clear weakness, with most preferring to review July and August inflation and jobs data before deciding.
• China Crypto Firm Bitmain Plans First U.S. Factory in Trump Gambit (Bloomberg): The leader in bitcoin mining hardware plans to open a facility in Texas or Florida this quarter, aligning with Trump’s “Made in America” push while aiming to better serve U.S. clients.
• Colombia Ex-President Uribe Guilty of Abuse of Process, Bribery of Public Official (Reuters): Colombia’s former leader, now the first ex-president convicted in a criminal court, faces sentencing Friday, 10 months ahead of the 2026 presidential election, where several of his allies are running for office.
• CoinShares Launches Zero-Fee SEI ETP With Staking Yield Across Europe (CoinDesk): Listed on Switzerland’s SIX exchange, the product makes it easier for European institutions to access SEI and launches shortly after CoinShares became the first firm licensed under Europe’s new MiCA framework.

In the Ether

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