By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

As August draws to a close, two observations stand out. First, the month’s typical surge in volatility in both traditional and cryptocurrency markets has not materialized.

That’s probably driven by market expectations of forthcoming Fed interest-rate cuts combined with record fiscal spending—essentially an amplified “Goldilocks” scenario. Yet, it raises the question: How much stimulus is too much?

Second, institutional flows reveal a divergence between bitcoin BTC$112,925.00 and ether (ETH). The U.S. ether ETFs have registered a net investment of $3.69 billion this month, extending the four-month inflows streak. Bitcoin ETFs, in contrast, have seen an outflow of over $800 million, the second-highest on record. The difference is a sign of investor rotation into ether from its larger rival and possibly a bull run in altcoins ahead.

That brings us to the key trend to watch out for in the coming month: the boom in altcoin treasury companies.

“The rise of altcoin treasuries can be the decisive spark that ignites the final phase of the current market cycle and ushers in another wave of the altseason,” said Ray Yossef, a crypto market analyst and founder of crypto app NoOnes.

Big names like BitMine, SharpLink, Galaxy Capital, Pantera and even corporations like Trump Media have begun focusing on blue-chip altcoins like ETH, SOL, BNB, and CRO as treasury-grade reserve assets, Yossef said in an email.

“Billions of dollars are being allocated and reallocated into these treasuries, and that institutional vote of confidence is boosting the perception of altcoins, signaling that institutional capital is no longer reserved exclusively for BTC,” he said.

In his latest article, Arthur Hayes, CIO and co-founder of Maelstrom Fund, predicted that ENA, ETHFI, and HYPE will rally 51x, 34x, and 126x, respectively, by 2028.

Over the next 24 hours, BTC traders should keep an eye on $113,600, as this level may experience an increase in selling pressure from short-term traders who reach their breakeven. The market focus seems to be on smaller altcoins. The CoinDesk 80 Index was recently up over 4% on a 24-hour basis while the CoinDesk 20 Index added just 0.82%.

In key news, Bybit announced the addition of Volmex’s bitcoin and ether implied volatility indices to its Advanced Earn Page, a hub for high-yield structured products. The move underscores the growing demand for volatility trading.

In traditional markets, bond yield curves continue to steepen across the advanced world, with longer-duration yields rising to multi-month/decade highs. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
• Macro
  • Aug. 28, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases July unemployment rate data.
    • Unemployment Rate Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 2.7%
  • Aug. 28, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases (2nd Estimate) Q2 GDP data.
    • Core PCE Prices QoQ st. 2.6% vs. Prev. 3.5%
    • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 3.1% vs. Prev. -0.5%
    • GDP Price Index QoQ Est. 2% vs. Prev. 3.8%
    • GDP Sales QoQEst. 6.3% vs. Prev. -3.1%
    • PCE Prices QoQ Est. 2.1% vs. Prev. 3.7%
    • Real Consumer Spending QoQ Est. 1.4% vs. Prev. 0.5%
  • Aug. 28, 1:30 p.m.: Uruguay’s National Statistics Institute releases July unemployment rate data.
    • Unemployment Rate Prev. 7.3%
  • Aug. 28, 6:00 p.m.: Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller will speak on “Payments” at the Economic Club of Miami Dinner, Miami, Fla. Watch live.
  • Aug. 29, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases Q2 GDP data.
    • GDP Growth Rate Annualized Est. -0.6% vs. Prev. 2.2%
    • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prev. 0.5%
  • Aug. 29, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases July consumer income and expenditure data.
    • Core PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • Core PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.9% vs. Prev. 2.8%
    • PCE Price Index MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • PCE Price Index YoY Est. 2.6% vs. Prev. 2.6%
    • Personal Income MoM Est. 0.4% vs. Prev. 0.3%
    • Personal Spending MoM Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. 0.3%
  • Aug. 29, 11 a.m.: Colombia’s National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE) releases July unemployment rate data.
    • Unemployment Rate Est. 8.9% vs. Prev. 8.6%
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Aug. 28: IREN (IREN), post-market, $0.18

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
• Unlocks
  • Aug. 28: Jupiter JUP$0.5199 to unlock 1.78% of its circulating supply worth $26.36 million.
  • Sep. 1: Sui SUI$3.5037 to release 1.25% of its circulating supply worth $153.1 million.
  • Sep. 2: Ethena ENA$0.6537 to release 0.64% of its circulating supply worth $25.64 million.
  • Sep. 5: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.27% of its circulating supply worth $13.26 million.
• Token Launches
  • Aug. 28: Mantle (MNT) to list on Bitfinex.
  • Aug. 28: Nobody Sausage (NOBODY) to list on Binance.US.
  • Aug. 28: Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) to list on Bistamp.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB15 for 15% off your registration through Sept. 1.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• YZY, the Solana-based memecoin linked to Ye (Kanye West), left more than 70,000 wallets in losses after its chaotic debut, according to blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps.
• The token was pitched as part of a broader “YZY Money” ecosystem, including payment rails and a branded card, but structural flaws in supply distribution and liquidity design quickly tilted risk the toward retail.
• Over 51,800 addresses apparently lost $1–$1,000, 5,269 wallets lost $1,000–$10,000 and 1,025 wallets lost $10,000–$100,000, Bubblemaps said. Three traders lost more than $1 million each and 108 wallets booked six-figure losses.
• On the flip side, just 11 wallets made $1 million or more, 99 wallets booked $100,000+, and about 2,541 cleared at least $1,000 in profit — meaning less than 0.1% of traders captured meaningful upside.
• The crowd overall is down $8.2 million, despite insiders pocketing millions. Bubblemaps’ data shows profits were brutally concentrated, with the top 11 winners capturing nearly all meaningful gains.
• Structural flaws were evident: 70% of supply was reserved for Yeezy Investments LLC, 20% sold to the public, and 10% used for liquidity. The pool was seeded only with YZY tokens, not paired with stablecoins, leaving it vulnerable to liquidity drains — similar to the LIBRA token collapse in Argentina..
• The outcome mirrors many celebrity-based memecoins, which are marketed as fan engagement tools, but often appear to be structured to funnel gains to those in the know while leaving retail buyers holding the bag.

Derivatives Positioning

• BTC’s rise in price from Tuesday is characterized by a drop in open interest (OI) in USDT- and dollar-denominated perpetual futures across major exchanges, including Bybit, Binance, OKX, Deribit and Hyperliquid, and low spot market volumes. (Check the Chart of the Day). The same is true for ether.
• The divergence between the price performance and trends in OI and volumes, raises a question about the sustainability of the gains.
• In the past 24 hours, SOL, DOGE and ADA have registered an increase in futures OI, while the other major cryptocurrencies have seen capital outflows. Funding rates (calculated on an 8-hour basis) for most majors have receded to near zero, indicating a neutral sentiment.
• On the CME, BTC futures OI remains well below December highs while the annualized three-month basis remains under 10%. However, options OI has increased to 42.89K BTC, the highest since May 29.
• In ETH’s case, the CME futures OI has risen to a record 2.2 million ETH, signaling robust institutional participation.
• On Deribit, BTC put options continue to trade at a higher premium than calls across all tenors, indicating a bearish regime shift. BTC’s implied volatility (IV) term structure remains upward-sloping with September expiry options trading at mid-to-high 30 IVs.
• In ETH’s case, the call bias has notably weakened since early this week.
• Block flows on OTC network Paradigm featured butterfly option strategies in BTC and an outright purchase of the Aug. 30 expiry ether call at the $5,000 strike.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 0.45% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $112,929.44(24hrs: +1.78%)
• ETH is down 0.12% at $4,589.62.94 (24hrs: +0.31%)
• CoinDesk 20 is unchanged at 4,168.55 (24hrs: +0.83%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 3 bps at 2.9%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.008% (8.7688% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.16% at 98.08
• Gold futures are up 0.18% at $3,454.80
• Silver futures are up 0.72% at $38.99
• Nikkei 225 closed up 0.73% at 42,828.79
• Hang Seng closed down 0.81% at 24,998.82
• FTSE is down 0.36% at 9,221.86
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.28% at 5,407.94
• DJIA closed on Wednesday up 0.32% at 45,565.23
• S&P 500 closed up 0.24% at 6,481.40
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.21% at 21,590.14
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.33% at 28,433.00
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.96% at 2,741.35
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 0.8 bps at 4.23%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,499.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 23,623.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.19% at 45,729.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 58.26% (-0.06%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.04062 (0.26%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 969 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $55.16
• Total fees: 3.65 BTC / $407,212
• CME Futures Open Interest: 138,700 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 33.2 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 9.45%

Technical Analysis

• BTC’s price is looking to establish a foothold above the upper end of the falling channel that marks the pullback from record highs.
• A convincing breakout would mean that the temporary bull breather has ended, opening the doors for a renewed rally to $120,000 and higher.
• The 50-, 100- and 200-hour simple moving averages are bottoming out as well in a sign of potential price gains ahead.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $308.97 (+0.16%), +0.63% at $310.92 in pre-market
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $127.4 (-1.28%), +0.58% at $128.14
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.41 (-1.25%), +1.27% at $24.72
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $63.98 (-3.18%), -0.14% at $63.89
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.85 (+0.06%), +1.14% at $16.03
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.55 (-1.02%), +1.03% at $13.69
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.2 (+1.14%), +0.92% at $14.33
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.58 (-1.03%), +1.67% at $9.74
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $29.31 (-0.27%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $27.25 (+1%), +2.68% at $27.98

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $342.06 (-2.65%), +1.21% at $346.21 in pre-market
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $30.56 (-0.75%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $19.27 (-3.26%), +1.19% at $19.50
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $8.22 (-3.92%), +6.45% at $8.75
• Mei Pharma (MEIP): closed at $5.16 (-2.27%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: $81.4 million
• Cumulative net flows: $54.16 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $307.2 million
• Cumulative net flows: $13.65 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.53 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

• BTC’s price recovery is marked by a decline in open interest in USD- and USDT-denominated perpetual futures on major exchanges.
• Furthermore, the spot volume has stayed low throughout the recovery.
• The divergence indicates low participation of both derivatives and spot traders in the price recovery.

While You Were Sleeping

• As Bitcoin Bounces, On-Chain Data Point to Selling Pressure Near $113.6K (CoinDesk): Glassnode data suggests short-term holders may sell near $113.6K and highlights $107K as the key support level, while analysts say ETF inflows and corporate buying provide a bullish counterweight.
• Ether Futures Open Interest on CME Hits Record $10B, Hinting at Institutional Resurgence (CoinDesk): The exchange said the number of large open interest holders — those holding at least 25 ETH contracts at a time — hit a record 101 early this month.
• The Sandbox Cuts Half of Its Staff, Restructures as Animoca Brands Take Control (CoinDesk): The Sandbox is reportedly facing sweeping cuts, dwindling users and a token crash, with control shifting to majority shareholder Animoca Brands and questions looming over its nine-figure crypto treasury.
• American Bitcoin, Backed by Trump’s Sons, Aims to Start Trading in September (Reuters): Hut 8 CEO Asher Genoot said American Bitcoin’s merger with Gryphon Digital Mining will soon close, allowing for a Nasdaq listing under the ticker ABTC. The Trump brothers and Hut 8 will hold 98% of the company.
• Denmark Summons U.S. Envoy Over Suspected American Influence Campaign in Greenland (The Wall Street Journal): Investigators say U.S.-linked operatives are compiling lists of sympathetic Greenlanders and stoking separatist sentiment to weaken Denmark’s grip, an unprecedented move among allies as Washington eyes strategic control of the island.
• China Won the Rare Earths Race. Can It Stay on Top? (Financial Times): China has kept prices low to block rivals, controlling 70% of mining, 90% of processing and nearly all magnet output, leaving western efforts struggling to build viable alternatives.

In the Ether