By James Van Straten (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped 3% in the past 24 hours and is currently some 7% below its June 14 all-time high.

This raises the question of how much further it might drop. In the context of a continuing bull market, double-digit corrections are not unusual, with the largest drawdown reaching 30% since this cycle began in January 2023.

One technical factor to keep an eye on is the CME Bitcoin Futures gap between $114,355 and $115,670. These gaps typically occur when price movement happens outside of the CME's trading hours, generally over weekends, and they often get filled later as the price revisits those levels.

In other news, Strategy (MSTR) reportedly quadrupled the size of its Stretch (STRC) perpetual preferred stock sale. Analyst Brian Brookshire notes the offering includes 28 million STRC shares. At $90 a pop, that totals over $2.5 billion and potential demand for some 21,500 BTC given a price of $115,000.

Meantime, demand already seems to be outstripping supply, according to on-chain data from Glassnode. Since early this month, more than 210,000 BTC has been sold by long-term holders (those who've owned their BTC for longer than 155 days) and about 250,000 BTC bought by short-term holders, the data shows.

With the month-end just a week away, bitcoin is about 8% higher than at the start. That's in line with its historical trend. On average, the largest cryptocurrency has returned about 7% in July since 2013.

Ether (ETH), for its part, has surged over 46% and is currently trading near $3,725. This is the third time it's topped 40% since November. Interestingly, in all the other months, it fell.

August is typically quieter, which often results in lower market liquidity. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • July 28: Starknet (STRK), an Ethereum layer-2 validity rollup (zk-rollup), launches v0.14.0 on mainnet.
  • July 31, 12 p.m.: A live webinar featuring Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Bitzenship founder Aleesandro Palombo discussing bitcoin’s potential as the next global reserve currency amid de-dollarization trends. Registration link.
  • Aug. 1: The Helium Network (HNT), now running on Solana, undergoes its halving event, cutting annual new token issuance to 7.5 million HNT.
  • Aug. 1: Hong Kong’s Stablecoins Ordinance takes effect, introducing a licensing regime to regulate stablecoin activities in the city.
  • Aug. 15: Record date for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who meet pre-distribution requirements.
• Macro
  • July 25, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases June manufactured durable goods orders data.
    • Durable Goods Orders MoM Est. -10.8% vs. Prev. 16.4%
    • Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM Prev. 15.5%
    • Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation MoM Est. 0.1% vs. Prev. 0.5%
  • July 28, 8 a.m.: Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases June unemployment rate data.
  • Aug. 1, 12:01 a.m.: New U.S. tariffs take effect on imports from trading partners that failed to reach agreements by the July 9 deadline. These increased duties could range from 10% to as high as 70%, impacting a wide range of goods.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • July 29: PayPal Holdings (PYPL), pre-market, $1.30
  • July 30: Robinhood Markets (HOOD), post-market, $0.31
  • July 31: Coinbase Global (COIN), post-market, $1.39
  • July 31: Reddit (RDDT), post-market, $0.19
  • July 31: Sequans Communications (SQNS), pre-market
  • Aug. 5: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), pre-market, $0.19
  • Aug. 7: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.67
  • Aug. 7: Coincheck Group (CNCK), post-market
  • Aug. 7: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, -$0.08
  • Aug. 27: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $1.00

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Aavegotchi DAO is voting on a proposal to sell its treasury of around 16 million GHST for around 3.2 million USDC to VC firm Rongming Investment , dissolve the DAO and distribute funds to active members. The VC firm aims to scale Aavegotchi globally while Pixelcraft retains IP ownership. Voting ends July 25.
  • Lido DAO is voting on a new system that lets validator exits be triggered automatically through the execution layer, not just by node operators. It includes tools for different authorization pathways, emergency controls, and built‑in limits to prevent misuse. The update is expected to make staking more decentralized, more secure and more responsive. Voting ends July 28.
  • GnosisDAO is voting on a proposal to provide $30 million a year, paid quarterly, to Gnosis Ltd., now a non-profit, to sustain its 150‑person team building critical Gnosis Chain infrastructure, products (like Gnosis Pay and Circles), business development and operations. Voting ends July 28.
  • Aavegotchi DAO is voting on funding three new features for the official decentralized application: a Wearable Lendings UI, Gotchis Batch Lending and a BRS Optimizer. Voting ends July 29.
  • NEAR Protocol is voting on potentially reducing NEAR’s inflation from 5% to 2.5%. Two-thirds of validators must approval the proposal for it to pass, and if so it could be implemented by late Q3. Voting ends Aug. 1.
  • July 25: MEXC, Ethena and TON to host an X Spaces session on “Stablecoin for You & Me.”
  • July 29, 10 a.m.: Ether.fi to host a bi-quarterly analyst call.
• Unlocks
  • July 28: Jupiter (JUP) to unlock 1.78% of its circulating supply worth $28.77 million.
  • July 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $22.08 million.
  • Aug. 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 1.27% of its circulating supply worth $162.78 million.
  • Aug. 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.64% of its circulating supply worth $22.29 million.
  • Aug. 9: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating supply worth $13.38 million.
  • Aug. 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.73% of its circulating supply worth $53.27 million.
• Token Launches
  • July 25: 5ireChain (5IRE), Aperture Finance (APTR), Ertha (ERTHA), Gummy (GUMMY), Pip (PIP), and Teleport System Token (TST) to be delisted from Bybit.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through Aug. 31.

• July 25: Blockchain Summit Global (Montevideo, Uruguay)
• July 28-29: TWS Conference 2025 (Singapore)
• Aug. 6-7: Blockchain.Rio 2025 (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
• Aug. 6-10: Rare EVO (Las Vegas)
• Aug. 7-8: bitcoin++ (Riga, Latvia)
• Aug. 9-10: Baltic Honeybadger 2025 (Riga, Latvia)
• Aug. 9-10: Conviction 2025 (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• WWE legend Hulk Hogan died Thursday following a cardiac arrest, triggering a wave of tribute posts for the wrestler and a near-instant surge of branded memecoins on Ethereum and Solana.
• The newly launched Wrapped ETH token “Hulkamania (HULK)” pumped over 122,000% within hours of deployment, peaking at $0.001335 and briefly hitting a seven-figure market cap, according to DEXTools.
• On Solana, a memecoin named HULKAMANIA (HULK) — launched in June 2024 — surged over 2,000% in 24 hours, trading near $0.0006146 with a revived market cap of $500,000.
• Despite the rally, the Solana-based HULK is still far below its $18.8 million all-time high from last year, which followed a now-deleted promotional tweet from Hogan’s official X account.
• Hogan, at the time, claimed the post wasn’t made by him.
• None of the current HULK tokens are officially affiliated with Hogan’s estate or brand and multiple copycat versions have already vanished from the DEX landscape, suggesting they are likely rug pulls and honeypots.
• Hogan joins a growing list of celebrities whose posthumous memecoins see rapid speculative inflows, often fueled by nostalgia, shock and social media virality before liquidity drains as fast as it arrives.
• It's worth remembering that tribute memecoins offer no legitimacy, no roadmap and no protections despite often being the fastest-moving tokens on DEX platforms during news-driven spikes.

Derivatives Positioning

• Open interest (OI) for bitcoin across top derivatives venues remains at all time highs.
• According to Velo, OI currently sits at $34.1 billion. Binance still leads with $14.2 billion open interest followed by Bybit at $9.5 billion.
• Three-month annualized basis for BTC is at 6.3%, dropping off from 9% earlier in the week.
• In terms of perpetual volumes, ETH volumes currently exceed BTC volumes at 140.6 billion versus 121.4 billion respectively, as per Coinglass.
• Bitcoin put-call volume currently stands at 44,600 contracts, with calls accounting for 52% of the total, according to Velo. Options OI for bitcoin is just under all time highs at $83.5 billion, according to Coinglass.
• Ether, on the other hand, currently has 196,400 put-call contract volume with 54% being calls. Open interest is currently at $9.6 billion, below the March 2024 all-time high of $14.8 billion.
• Funding rate APRs for BTC are muted across most venues except Hyperliquid, where the rate currently is at 90% annualized funding. This is well above altcoins such as SOL and HYPE, which currently show an annualized funding of 10% and 32%, respectively, as per Coinglass.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 2.39% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $115,912.54 (24hrs: -1.99%)
• ETH is down 0.41% at $3,721.30 (24hrs: +2.54%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 1.94% at 3,940.10 (24hrs: +0.64%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bp at 2.96%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0367% (40.1865% annualized) on KuCoin

• DXY is up 0.32% at 97.68
• Gold futures are down 0.72% at $3,349.30
• Silver futures are down 0.34% at $39.09
• Nikkei 225 closed down 0.88% at 41,456.23
• Hang Seng closed down 1.09% at 25,388.35
• FTSE is down 0.29% at 9,112.22
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.15% at 5,347.34
• DJIA closed on Thursday down 0.70% at 44,693.91
• S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,363.35
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.18% at 21,057.96
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.16% at 27,372.26
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.44% at 2,627.58
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 1.2 bps at 4.42%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,407.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 23,374.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.13% at 44,956.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 61.46% (-0.58%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03184 (1.65%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 914 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $59.04
• Total fees: 9.82 BTC / $1,166,840
• CME Futures Open Interest: 147,320 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 34.4 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 9.66%

Technical Analysis

• Ethena's ENA has been one of the strongest performers in the market, following the announcement of StablecoinX, a SPAC that has raised $360 million to acquire ENA as treasury holdings.
• On the daily timeframe, ENA has broken its downtrend and retested the previous resistance at $0.45.
• This bullish narrative is further supported by the confluence of reclaiming Monday’s low and the 50-day exponential moving average on the weekly chart.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $414.92 (+0.55%), -2.44% at $404.79 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $396.7 (-0.28%), -1.75% at $389.74
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $193.08 (-4.61%), -0.64% at $191.84
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $31.89 (+2.77%), -4.2% at $30.55
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $17.26 (-1.76%), -2.95% at $16.75
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.69 (+2.44%), -2.59% at $14.31
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.69 (+1.48%), unchanged in pre-market
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $12.34 (-0.88%), -2.35% at $12.05
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $27.11 (-0.84%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $38.89 (-1.09%), -3.57% at $37.5
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $33.61 (-1.75%), +3.01% at $34.62
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $23.32 (-9.65%), +2.44% at $23.89

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: $226.7 million
• Cumulative net flows: $54.67 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $231.2 million
• Cumulative net flows: $8.9 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.34 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• Spot ether ETFs in the U.S. have recorded $4.67 billion in net inflows in July alone, surpassing the total cumulative net inflows of $4.23 billion accumulated from inception through June.

While You Were Sleeping

• Trump’s Tariffs Are Being Picked Up by Corporate America (The Wall Street Journal): American companies are largely delaying price hikes and absorbing tariff costs for now as foreign sellers offer limited relief and President Trump’s trade deals add uncertainty over who ultimately pays.
• Iran Starts New Talks Today Over Its Nuclear Program. Here’s What to Know. (The New York Times): European officials resumed talks with Iran in Istanbul, warning they’ll restore suspended U.N. sanctions by the end of next month if Tehran doesn’t reengage with the U.S. and curb uranium enrichment.
• Bitcoin to Hit $135K by Year-End in Base-Case Forecast, $199K in Bullish Scenario: Citi (CoinDesk): In the bank's most bearish setup, the forecast drops to $64,000.
• Companies Load Up on Niche Crypto Tokens to Boost Share Prices (Financial Times): Some public companies are turning to altcoin treasuries to differentiate and boost valuation. Analysts say this speculative trend offers no long-term solution for firms already facing financial distress.
• Volmex's Bitcoin and Ether Volatility Futures Top $10M Volume Since Debut as Traders Look Beyond Price (CoinDesk): Traders are using these recently launched products on the decentralized platform to express views on market turbulence without taking a directional stance on BTC/ETH prices or managing complex option strategies.
• Digital Assets Firm OSL Raises $300 Million to Expand Crypto Business Worldwide (Bloomberg): As Hong Kong awaits its stablecoin law taking effect Aug. 1, the CFO of one of its earliest licensed exchanges says the new funding will support a broader push into overseas digital asset markets.

In the Ether

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