By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

As the crypto market reels under U.S. stagflation concerns, traders on the decentralized platform Polymarket are seeing a more than 50% chance of bitcoin (BTC) prices dropping into five figures before year-end.

Shares in the Yes side of Polymarket's “Will bitcoin dip below $100K before 2026” contract traded at 55 cents, implying a 55% probability. That pricing looks justified against the backdrop of recent economic data.

“With both manufacturing and services ISMs now weaker than the most bearish forecasts, the market is coming to terms with something darker: Job growth could be rolling over hard,” Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, wrote in a post on FXStreet.

“If you weigh these surveys together by their economic footprint, the implications are staggering — potential NFP prints dropping by over 100,000. Not just soft, but recessionary-soft. Yet the kicker? Inflation’s still sticky where it counts.”

Interest-rate traders have already ramped up bets on a Fed reduction. Still, observers are divided on whether rate cuts fueled by economic weakness bode well for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

While lower rates often make riskier assets more attractive, Wall Street appears to expect some pain, and momentum traders have shifted to selling, according to Innes. The same is true of bitcoin, with Deribit-listed short-term puts now costing more than calls, reflecting downside concerns.

Even so, the options market sees a lower chance of a sub-$100K bitcoin by year-end than Polymarket. That's evident from the -0.25 delta of the December expiry $100K put. Delta refers to the sensitivity of the option's price to a change in the underlying asset and represents the probability of the option expiring in profit.

The outlook for ether (ETH) seems more constructive since the SEC said staking activities and the receipt of tokens, under certain conditions, do not constitute securities offerings. The guidance clears the way for the regulatory approval of spot ether ETFs with staking, which is expected to boost the cryptocurrency's appeal as a sort of internet bond.

Speaking of the broader market, altcoins appeared weak compared with majors. The CoinDesk 80 Index traded 2.9% lower over 24 hours, slightly more than CoinDesk 20 Index's 2.3%.

In other news, Japan's largest bank, SBI, announced an ETF tied to bitcoin and XRP. A governance proposal circulating in the Metamask community revealed the wallet's plan to launch a “MetaMask USD” stablecoin through a partnership with Stripe's payment infrastructure.

In traditional markets, futures tied to the S&P 500 traded 0.2% higher, indicating a marginally positive open on Wall Street while the dollar index was flat around 98.70. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • Aug. 7, 10 a.m.: Circle will host a webinar, “The GENIUS Act Era Begins,” featuring Dante Disparte and Corey Then. The session will discuss the first U.S. federal payment stablecoin framework and its impact on crypto innovation and regulation.
  • Aug. 15: Record date for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who meet pre-distribution requirements.
  • Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives will launch nano SOL and nano XRP U.S. perpetual-style futures.
• Macro
  • Aug. 6, 2 p.m.: Fed Governor Lisa D. Cook will deliver a speech titled “U.S. and Global Economy”. Livestream link.
  • Aug. 7, 12:01 a.m.: New U.S. reciprocal tariffs outlined in President Trump’s July 31 executive order become effective for a broad range of trading partners that did not secure deals by the Aug. 1 deadline. These tariffs range from 15% to 41%, depending on the country.
  • Aug. 7, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases July consumer price inflation data.
    • Core Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.39%
    • Core Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4.24%
    • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.28%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4.32%
  • Aug. 7, 3 p.m.: Mexico's central bank, Banco de México, announces its monetary policy decision.
    • Overnight Interbank Target Rate Est. 7.75% vs. Prev. 8%
  • Aug. 8: Federal Reserve Governor Adriana D. Kugler's resignation becomes effective, creating an early vacancy on the Board of Governors that allows President Trump to nominate a successor.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Aug. 7: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.67
  • Aug. 7: CleanSpark (CLSK), post-market, $0.19
  • Aug. 7: Coincheck Group (CNCK), post-market
  • Aug. 7: Cipher Mining (CIFR), pre-market
  • Aug. 7: Hut 8 (HUT), pre-market, -$0.08
  • Aug. 8: TeraWulf (WULF), pre-market, -$0.06
  • Aug. 11: Exodus Movement (EXOD), post-market
  • Aug. 12: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market
  • Aug. 12: Fold Holdings (FLD), post-market

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Arbitrum DAO is voting to renew its partnership with Entropy Advisors for two more years, starting September 2025. The proposal includes $6 million in funding and 15 million ARB for incentives for Entropy to focus on treasury management, incentive design, data infrastructure, and ecosystem growth. Voting ends Aug. 7.
  • BendDAO is voting on a plan to stabilize BEND by burning 50% of treasury tokens, restarting lender rewards and launching monthly buybacks using 20% of protocol revenue. Voting ends Aug. 10.
  • 1inch DAO is voting on a $1.88 million grant to fund its participation in nine global crypto events through late 2025. The proposal aims to boost developer engagement, grow institutional ties and expand adoption across ecosystems like Ethereum and Solana. Voting ends Aug. 10.
  • Aug. 6, 1 p.m.: Livepeer to host a fireside on Twitter and Discord.
  • Aug. 7, 12 p.m.: Celo to host a governance call.
  • Aug. 8, 11:30 a.m.: Axie Infinity to host a town hall on Discord.
• Unlocks
  • Aug. 9: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.3% of its circulating supply worth $12.32 million.
  • Aug. 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.73% of its circulating supply worth $48.18 million.
  • Aug. 15: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.39% of its circulating supply worth $36.87 million.
  • Aug. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.53% of its circulating supply worth $14.77 million.
  • Aug. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 0.96% of its circulating supply worth $15.92 million.
  • Aug. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.8% of its circulating supply worth $35.82 million.
  • Aug. 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.64% of its circulating supply worth $91.4 million.
• Token Launches
  • Aug. 6: Worldcoin (WLD) to be listed on Binance.US.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through Aug. 31.

• Day 3 of 3: The Science of Blockchain Conference 2025 (Berkeley, California)
• Day 1 of 2: Blockchain Rio 2025 (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
• Day 1 of 5: Rare EVO (Las Vegas)
• Aug. 7-8: bitcoin++ (Riga, Latvia)
• Aug. 9-10: Baltic Honeybadger 2025 (Riga, Latvia)
• Aug. 9-10: Conviction 2025 (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)
• Aug. 11: Paraguay Blockchain Summit 2025 (Asuncion)
• Aug. 11-13: AIBB 2025 (Istanbul)
• Aug. 11-17: Ethereum NYC (New York)

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• Pump.fun reclaimed the lead in Solana token launches with 13,690 new tokens in 24 hours, slightly ahead of LetsBonk.fun’s 13,392, according to Dune Analytics data.
• Despite trailing in token count, LetsBonk retained the edge in daily trading volume at $87.7 million, compared with Pump’s $82.4 million.
• The resurgence in Pump’s activity coincides with renewed momentum for its native PUMP token, which has rebounded 17.8% over the past week to $0.003247. It's still down 52% from its post-ICO peak.
• Pump raised $600 million in 12 minutes during last months' ICO and has begun a multimillion-dollar buyback, according to on-chain data — a move that may be stabilizing sentiment.
• LetsBonk, backed by the Bonk community and integrated with Raydium’s LaunchLab, channels half of its fee revenue into BONK token burns, while also supporting BONKsol and other Solana ecosystem initiatives.
• Solana, for its part, faces competitive pressure from Base, where token launch activity has surpassed Solana in raw numbers. That's driven by the Base App’s integration of Zora and Farcaster, which automatically mints social posts as ERC-20 tokens.
• While Solana still leads in memecoin trading volume, Base’s rapid growth signals a shifting dynamic, particularly in experimentation and social-driven token creation.

Derivatives Positioning

• Futures open interest in the top 10 coins excluding BTC dropped 4% to 10% in the past 24 hours, indicating capital outflows from the market. BTC's open interest held flat.
• Funding rates still remain above an annualized 5% for most major tokens indicating a dominance of bullish long bets. It also means potential for long liquidations should prices continue to drop.
• Bitcoin's CME futures also indicate capital outflows, with open interest in standard contracts (sized at 5 BTC) at lowest since late April. The basis in BTC and ETH futures remains locked between 5% and 10%, showing no signs of improvement.
• On Deribit, BTC and ETH options risk reversals now show bearish (put) bias out to October expiry. Block flows on OTC desk Paradigm featured rollover of BTC puts.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 0.237% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $114,105.72 (24hrs: -0.55%)
• ETH is up 1.39% at $3,626.69 (24hrs: -1.34%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 0.78% at 3,768.88 (24hrs: -2.33%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 7 bps at 2.93%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0086% (9.3699% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is unchanged at 98.73
• Gold futures are down 0.56% at $3,415.60
• Silver futures are unchanged at $37.80
• Nikkei 225 closed up 0.6% at 40,794.86
• Hang Seng closed unchanged at 24,910.63
• FTSE is up 0.22% at 9,162.81
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.28% at 5,264.22
• DJIA closed on Tuesday down 0.14% at 44,111.74
• S&P 500 closed down 0.49% at 6,299.19
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.65% at 20,916.55
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 2.03% at 27,570.08
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.71% at 2,590.51
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 4.3 bps at 4.239%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.23% at 6,339.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 23,141.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.31% at 44,374.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 61.82% (unchanged)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03177 (+0.38%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 952 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $56.64
• Total Fees: 3.67 BTC / $418,957
• CME Futures Open Interest: 137,790 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 33.7 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 9.53%

Technical Analysis

• The ether-bitcoin (ETH/BTC) pair has formed a bull flag pattern on the daily chart. The pattern represents a temporary pause in the initial uptrend that usually refreshes higher.
• A move through the upper end of the flag would signal the resumption of the ether rally relative to bitcoin.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $375.46 (-3.54%), +0.87% at $378.71 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $297.99 (-6.34%), +1.41% at $302.18
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $153.93 (-6.61%), -1.3% at $151.93
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $27.68 (-4.19%), -0.58% at $27.52
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.62 (-2.62%), unchanged in pre-market
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.13 (-2.54%), unchanged in pre-market
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.08 (+3.15%), -0.43% at $14.02
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.83 (+1.98%), +0.37% at $10.87
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $24.85 (+0.08%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $34.87 (-1.41%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $28.9 (-2.27%), +0.69% at $29.10
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $20.23 (+5.69%), -1.33% at $19.96

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$196.2 million
• Cumulative net flows: $53.63 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $73.3 million
• Cumulative net flows: $9.12 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.57 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The chart shows daily net inflow of ether into centralized exchanges.
• Recently, there have been large outflows, a sign of investors accumulating the cryptocurrency on the dip.

While You Were Sleeping

• Bitcoin ETFs Bleed Millions for 4th Straight Day as U.S. Stagflation Fears Weigh on BTC and Stocks (CoinDesk): Tuesday’s U.S. ISM services PMI showed tariff-driven inflation, weak employment and trade disruptions — signs of stagflation, a worst-case scenario for risk assets like tech stocks and crypto.
• Swiss President Set to Meet Rubio on Wednesday to Avert Tariffs (Bloomberg): Talks are complicated by a $38 billion U.S. trade deficit driven by gold and pharmaceuticals, with analysts warning the proposed 39% tariff could threaten up to 1% of Swiss economic output.
• Leveraged Bearish Strategy ETF Surges 19%, Signals Dour Outlook for MSTR and Bitcoin (CoinDesk): The Defiance 2x Short MSTR ETF, up 19% last week, has seen a net inflow of $16.3 million in the past six months, while its bullish counterpart experienced significant outflows.
• China Warns Worldcoin-Style Iris Scanning a National Security Threat (CoinDesk): China’s Ministry of State Security warned that incentivized iris scans could allow foreign firms to exfiltrate biometric data, raising concerns about surveillance abuse and deepfake-enabled infiltration by intelligence services.
• India’s Central Bank Holds Rates Amid Rising Tariff Tensions With Donald Trump (Financial Times): The RBI kept its repo rate at 5.5%, citing tariff uncertainty and the still-unfolding impact of 100 basis points in cuts this year as the U.S. threatens more tariffs over India’s Russian oil imports.
• Trump Just Got a Fresh Shot at Bending the Fed to His Will (The Wall Street Journal): Adriana Kugler’s early resignation lets the president appoint a rate-setter now, potentially one who can pressure Chair Jerome Powell, advocate rate cuts and signal succession plans, depending on whether the pick is strategic or short-term.

In the Ether

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