By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin

ended June above $107,000 at a record monthly close. Still, the largest crypto’s 2.5% monthly gain failed to match the euro’s advance against the dollar, the most liquid FX pair in the world.

The eurozone currency rose nearly 4% against the greenback last month, hitting its highest since September 2021. That prompted some traders to switch to euro-pegged stablecoins, resulting in a notable increase in their market values.

The euro’s momentum highlights the continued broad-based decline in the U.S. currency, which means financial conditions will likely remain easy, even though the weakness hasn’t done much to lift a directionless BTC.

The prolonged range play has been widely attributed to selling by wallets with a history of holdings coins for over a year. The profit-taking continued on Monday, with on-chain realized gains hitting the $2.4 billion mark.

BTC was recently trading 0.6% lower over 24 hours at $106,500. Other tokens, including XRP, DOGE, SOL and ETH, followed suit, while BCH, ALGO, and PAXG stood out.

Some analysts called for patience in the wake of continued institutional adoption. On Monday, Germany’s savings bank network said it will enable crypto trading for clients within a year. Strategy disclosed another major BTC purchase last week, acquiring $531 million worth of BTC.

“While short-term momentum has faded, medium-term signals remain bullish, especially with corporate treasuries accelerating their accumulation pace. We slightly reduced exposure to protect capital but remain constructive — especially on altcoins with room to catch up,” Valentin Fournier, lead research analyst at BRN.

That said, the third quarter has historically been bitcoin’s weakest. Moreover, liquidity tends to be weaker as well due to summer holidays, which raises the likelihood of exaggerated price moves. Remember the yen-led crash in BTC from $70,000 to $50,000 in late July to early August last year? This calls for caution even as analysts maintain the long-term constructive outlook.

In other news, American Bitcoin, a crypto firm backed by Eric Trump, raised $220 million to buy bitcoin and mining equipment. An FTX creditor posted on X that claims under $50,000 received 120% payouts in February and May 2025.

Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas said that there’s a 95% chance the U.S. SEC will approve spot ETFs for LTC and XRP this year.

In traditional markets, analysts awaited the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech later Tuesday and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • July 2: Shares of the REX-Osprey Solana Staking ETF (tSSK) are expected to begin trading on the Cboe BZX Exchange, making this the first U.S.-listed ETF to combine SOL price exposure with on-chain staking rewards.
• Macro
  • Day 2 of 3: ECB Forum on Central Banking (Sintra, Portugal)
  • July 1, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases June Brazil data on manufacturing and services activity.
    • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 49.4
  • July 1, 9:30 a.m.: “High Level Policy Panel” discussion chaired by Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. Livestream link.
  • July 1, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (final) June U.S. data on manufacturing and services activity.
    • Manufacturing PMI Est. 52 vs. Prev. 52
  • July 1, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases June U.S. services sector data.
    • Manufacturing PMI Est. Est. 48.8 vs. Prev. 48.5
  • July 1, 10 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases April U.S. labor market data (i.e. the JOLTS report).
    • Job Openings Est. 7.3M vs. Prev. 7.391M
    • Job Quits Prev. 3.194M
  • July 2, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases June Canada data on manufacturing and services activity.
    • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 46.1
  • July 3, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases June employment data.
    • Non Farm Payrolls Est. 110K vs. Prev. 139K
    • Unemployment Rate Est. 4.3% vs. Prev. 4.2%
    • Government Payrolls Prev. -1K
    • Manufacturing Payrolls Est. -6K vs. Prev. -8K
  • July 3, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended June 28.
    • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 240K vs. Prev. 236K
    • Continuing Jobless Claims Est. 1960K vs. Prev. 1974K
  • July 3, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases June Brazil data on manufacturing and services activity.
    • Composite PMI Prev. 49.1
    • Services PMI Prev. 49.6
  • July 3, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (final) June U.S. data on manufacturing and services activity.
    • Composite PMI Est. 52.8 vs. Prev. 53
    • Services PMI Est. 53.1 vs. Prev. 53.7
  • July 3, 10 a.m.: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases June U.S. services sector data.
    • Services PMI Est. 50.5 vs. Prev. 49.9
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • GnosisDAO is voting on renewing its partnership with Nethermind for Gnosis Chain maintenance and development, proposing 750,000 DAI funding for the first year from June, with 4% annual increases. Voting ends July 2.
  • Radiant DAO is voting on potentially compensating users whose wallets were drained via unlimited token approvals in the October 2024 hack. If passed, a follow-up plan would outline stablecoin conversions, claim contracts on Arbitrum, and phased repayments. Voting ends July 2.
  • Arbitrum DAO is voting on lowering the constitutional quorum threshold from 5% to 4.5% of votable tokens. This aims to match decreased voter participation and help well-supported proposals pass more easily, without affecting non-constitutional proposals, which remain at a 3% quorum. Voting ends July 4.
  • Polkadot Community is voting on launching a non-custodial Polkadot branded payment card to “to bridge the gap between digital assets in the Polkadot ecosystem and everyday spending.” Voting ends July 9.
• Unlocks
  • July 1: Sui to unlock 1.3% of its circulating supply worth $122.75 million.
  • July 2: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.67% of its circulating supply worth $10.59 million.
  • July 11: Immutable to unlock 1.31% of its circulating supply worth $10.65 million.
  • July 12: Aptos to unlock 1.76% of its circulating supply worth $52.7 million.
  • July 15: Starknet to unlock 3.79% of its circulating supply worth $14.42 million.
  • July 15: Sei to unlock 1% of its circulating supply worth $15.73 million.
  • July 16: Arbitrum to unlock 1.87% of its circulating supply worth $30.33 million.
• Token Launches
  • July 4: Biswap (BSW), Stella , Komodo (KMD), LeverFi (LEVER), and LTO Network (LTO) to be delisted from Binance.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through July 17.

Token Talk

By Francisco Rodrigues

• While all eyes were on the introduction of Robinhood’s tokenized stocks and on Kraken and Bybit’s xStocks debut, a layer-2 network built to streamline DeFi quietly launched its mainnet yesterday.
• Katana’s mainnet went live after it saw pre-deposits near $250 million, according to DeFiLlama data. The blockchain is backed by GSR and Polygon Labs.
• The non-profit Katana Foundation says the chain attacks three chronic pain points: thin liquidity, erratic yields and capital flight. It does so by folding yield generation into the base layer.
• When users bridge USDC, ETH, WBTC, AUSD or USDT, Katana’s VaultBridge pushes those funds into lending pools such as those on Morpho and Sushi, then sends the earnings back to depositors and app builders.
• A separate mechanism called chain-owned liquidity captures transaction fees to bankroll the network over time.
• Katana is distributing its native token, KAT, through liquidity mining. KAT is non-transferable for now, but the team expects an exchange listing by next year. Holders will be able to lock tokens for vKAT and share in staking rewards.

Derivatives Positioning

• Perpetual funding rates for most tokens major tokens, including BTC and ETH, held marginally positive. XRP led with near 10% rates while XLM and ADA showed bias for shorts with sub-zero readings.
• On the CME, BTC and ETH futures basis remained locked in the annualized 7% to 10% range.
• On Deribit, risk reversals out to August-end expiry showed a bias for protective puts, with subsequent tenors showing a mild bias for calls. In ETH’s case, bearishness in the short-term tenors was more pronounced.
• Block flows over the OTC desk Paradigm showed demand for the September expiry BTC $180K call option.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 0.91% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $106,629.81 (24hrs: -0.96%)
• ETH is down 1.81% at $2,458.53 (24hrs: +0.15%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 2.37% at 3,010.77 (24hrs: -0.17%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 7 bps at 2.96%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0048% (5.3042% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.47% at 96.42
• Gold futures are up 1.49% at $3,357.10
• Silver futures are up 1.81% at $36.50
• Nikkei 225 closed down 1.24% at 39,986.33
• Hang Seng closed down 0.87% at 24,072.28
• FTSE is down 0.17% at 8,745.89
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.30% at 5,287.47
• DJIA closed on Monday up 0.63% at 44,094.77
• S&P 500 closed up 0.52% at 6,204.95
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.47% at 20,369.73
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.62% at 26,857.11
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.41% at 2,694.58
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 2.9 bps at 4.197%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.26% at 6,237.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.33% at 22,817.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.13% at 44,331.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 65.34% (0.19%)
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02307 (-0.6%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 869 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $57.97
• Total Fees: 4.22 BTC / $455,433
• CME Futures Open Interest: 147,470 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 32.2 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 9.12%

Technical Analysis

• BTC fell 1% Monday, narrowly missing the bull flag breakout. The decline produced a bearish outside day candle, with a price range wider than the preceding day’s candle.
• Bearish outside day candles appearing after notable price gains, as in BTC’s case, signal renewed bearish trends.

Crypto Equities

• Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $404.23 (+5.3%), -1.64% at $397.59 in pre-market
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $350.49 (-0.83%), -1.53% at $345.12
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $181.29 (+0.48%), +1.98% at $184.88
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.90 (+9.66%), +3.47% at $22.66
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.68 (+4.32%), -1.85% at $15.39
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.3 (+7.11%), -1.59% at $11.12
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.07 (+2.52%), -1.52% at $16.81
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.03 (+3.37%), -1.81% at $10.83
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $22.74 (+4.74%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $38.74 (+0.62%), +0.15% at $38.80
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $28.83 (-3.42%), +1.14% at $29.16

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: $102.1 million
• Cumulative net flows: $48.95 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.25 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $31.8 million
• Cumulative net flows: $4.23 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~4.1 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The dollar value of the total stablecoin transactions crossed above the $4 trillion mark in June, the most since January, according to data source Artemis.
• The data shows that while BTC’s price didn’t do much in the month, adoption of stablecoin continued unabated.

While You Were Sleeping

• Mexico and Brazil Seek Deeper Trade Ties to Expand Beyond US and China (Financial Times): Trump-era tariffs and new leftist governments have created a rare opening for Latin America’s two largest economies to revisit a limited trade pact and explore deeper commercial integration.
• Trump Crypto Venture Raises $220 Million for Bitcoin Mining (Bloomberg): American Bitcoin raised $220 million from private investors including $10 million in bitcoin. Majority owner Hut 8 Corp. plans to take it public through a merger with Gryphon Digital Mining.
• XRP, TRX, DOGE Lead Majors With Positive Funding Rates as Bitcoin’s Traditionally Weak Quarter Begins (CoinDesk): Perpetual funding rates indicate a bullish sentiment for top altcoins, with XRP showing the strongest demand, while rates for market leaders bitcoin and ether are marginally positive.
• Robinhood, Kraken-Backed Global Dollar (USDG) Comes to Europe (CoinDesk): USDG is regulated by the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework, Finland’s Financial Supervisory Authority and Singapore’s Monetary Authority. MiCA requires issuer Paxos to hold reserves with European banking partners.
• The Dollar Has Its Worst Start to a Year Since 1973 (The New York Times): Trump’s tariff policy, rising national debt, and the moves toward de-dollarization have reduced the dollar’s appeal, even amid high interest rates and a booming stock market.
• ARK Invest Sold $95M of Coinbase Shares After COIN’s Surge to Record Highs (CoinDesk): Monday’s $43.8 million sale brings ARK’s total to 270,984 COIN shares offloaded over three sessions, as the stock’s surge above $380 triggered sales to keep COIN under 10% in its ETFs.

In the Ether