By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The crypto market action has been pretty muted in majors, mainly due to the quiet aftermath of Monday’s North American holiday. Yet, two clear themes are still playing out — gold continues to surge to record highs, while bitcoin BTC$109,950.80 is struggling to find upward momentum. At the same time, we’re seeing continued rotation of money out of BTC and into ether (ETH).

Gold hit a record $3,500 per ounce this morning, buoyed by growing bets on Fed interest-rate cuts, a worsening fiscal outlook across major economies and increased political meddling with Fed policy. Gold-backed tokens like PAXG and XAUT followed suit but have since pulled back, as has the metal itself, in what appears to be a typical breather in a bull trend.

On the other hand, while bitcoin bounced to over $110,000, it’s still trading below key resistance levels, such as the Ichimoku cloud. According to Lookonchain, whale address 0xFf15 offloaded 425 BTC, worth $46.5 million, in exchange for over 10,500 ETH in the past four days.

Meanwhile, on-chain data tracked by Alphractal painted a picture of subdued Bitcoin network engagement. Active addresses dropped to 690,000 last week, and transaction fees remain limp. But transfer volumes spiked to $10.8 billion, reflecting “repositioning by large entities rather than broad retail activity,” the analytics firm said in Telegram chat.

Meanwhile, Vibes Capital Management’s Frank Fetter published an interesting indicator note on X, stating that an indicator tied to the short-term holder market value-to-realized value has flashed levels similar to those seen at bottoms in August last year and April this year. Could we be seeing a third such bottom? Time will tell.

Some altcoins made notable moves. The Trump-linked WLFI token experienced a sharp decline, dropping to 25 cents from 33 cents shortly after its Sunday trading debut. In contrast, Hyperliquid’s HYPE token surged over 3% after reaching a record $100 million in revenue in August, with perpetual trading volumes exceeding $400 billion.

Meanwhile, traders on decentralized betting platform Polymarket assigned a 98% chance that France’s Sept. 8 confidence vote will fail. Watch out for a sharp rise in peripheral bond yields, including those in France, relative to those in Germany, as that could revive memories of the EU debt crisis, weakening the euro against the dollar and potentially putting downward pressure on bitcoin.

In traditional markets, commodity trading advisor (CTA)-positioning in U.S. equities is max long at the 100th percentile, signaling extreme bullishness, according to observer David Merlin. President Donald Trump is reportedly going to speak later Tuesday.

The yen weakened after the Bank of Japan hinted that rate hikes are on the horizon, though timing remains uncertain. With a data-heavy week ahead culminating in Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls, volatility is expected to increase. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • Sept. 3, 10:15 a.m.: Tellor (TRB), a decentralized oracle network that operates as an Ethereum layer-2 blockchain, will upgrade its mainnet to version 5.1.1. The upgrade improves network performance and node operation.
  • Sept. 4: Polygon will switch its mainnet token to POL from MATIC. Holders of MATIC on Ethereum, Polygon zkEVM or centralized exchanges may need to take action.
• Macro
  • Sept. 2: U.S. lawmakers return to Capitol Hill following the August recess to resume legislative work.
  • Sept. 2, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics releases Q2 GDP data.
    • GDP Growth Rate QoQ Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 1.4%
    • GDP Growth Rate YoY Est. 2.1% vs. Prev. 2.9%
  • Sept. 2, 9:30 a.m.: S&P Global releases August manufacturing data for Canada.
    • Manufacturing PMI Prev. 46.1
  • Sept. 2, 9:45 a.m.: S&P Global releases (final) August manufacturing and services data for United States.
    • Manufacturing PMI Est. 53.3 vs. Prev. 49.8
  • Sept. 2, 10 a.m.: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases August U.S. manufacturing sector data.
    • Manufacturing PMI Est. 49 vs. 48
    • Manufacturing Employment Prev. 43.4
    • Manufacturing New Orders Prev. 47.1
    • Manufacturing Prices Est. 65.1 vs. Prev. 64.8
  • Sept. 2, 1:30 p.m.: The Central Bank of Paraguay releases August consumer price inflation data.
    • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 4.3%
  • Sept. 3, 8 a.m.: Brazil’s Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases July industrial production data.
    • Industrial Production MoM Est. -0.3% vs. Prev. 0.1%
    • Industrial Production YoY Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. -1.3%
  • Sept. 3, 9 a.m.: S&P Global releases August Brazil data on manufacturing and services activity.
    • Composite PMI Prev. 46.6
    • Services PMI Prev. 46.3
  • Sept. 3, 10 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases July labor market data (the JOLTS report).
    • Job Openings Est. 7.4M vs. Prev. 7.437M
    • Job Quits Prev. 3.142M
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Sept. 9: GameStop (GME), post-market

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Arbitrum DAO is voting on upgrading Arbitrum One and Nova to ArbOS 50 Dia, adding support for Ethereum’s Fusaka fork, new EIPs, bug fixes, and a Native Mint/Burn feature (for Orbit chains only). Voting ends Sept. 4.
  • Uniswap DAO is voting on deploying Uniswap v3 on Ronin with $1M in RON and $500K in UNI incentives to make it the chain’s primary decentralized exchange. Voting ends Sept. 6.
  • Lido DAO is voting on a proposal to migrate Nethermind’s ~7,000 Ethereum validators to infrastructure operated by Twinstake, a staking provider co-founded by Nethermind. Voting ends Sept. 8.
  • Sept. 2, 6 a.m.: Bybit and Centrifuge to host an ask me anything (AMA) session on X spaces.
  • Sept. 3: Stellar XLM$0.3622 to host vote on Protocol 23 mainnet upgrade.
  • Sept. 3, 10 am: Lido to host a Poolside Community Call.
  • Sept. 3, 10 a.m.: Zebec Network ZBCN$0.004449 to host spaces event on blockchain integrations.
  • Sept. 3, 12:30 p.m.: Aptos APT$4.3168 to host hangout on ecosystem updates.
  • Sept. 4, 10 a.m.: Olympus OHM$129.86: to host community call.
• Unlocks
  • Sept. 2: Ethena ENA$0.6939 to release 0.64% of its circulating supply worth $25.64 million.
  • Sept. 5: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.27% of its circulating supply worth $13.26 million.
  • Sept. 11: Aptos APT$4.3168 to unlock 2.2% of its circulating supply worth $48.18 million.
  • Sept. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 5.98% of its circulating supply worth $16.39 million.
  • Sept. 15: Sei SEI$0.2823 to unlock 1.18% of its circulating supply worth $16 million.
  • Sept. 16: Arbitrum ARB$0.4904 to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $47.15 million.
• Token Launches
  • Sept. 2: Quack AI (Q) top be listed on Binance Alpha, KuCoin, BingX, MEXC, and others.
  • Sept. 2: Somnia (SOMI) to be listed on Binance Alpha, KuCoin, MEXC, Gate.io and others.
  • Sept. 3: Moonchain (MCH) to be listed on Binance Alpha, MEXC, Gate.io, and others.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

• World Liberty Financial (WLFI), the Trump-affiliated DeFi project, is floating a buyback-and-burn program to shore up confidence after its rocky launch.
• Under the proposal, fees from WLFI’s liquidity positions on Ethereum, Binance Smart Chain and Solana would be used to buy tokens on the open market and permanently burn them.
• The design shifts the token’s framing from oversupply to engineered scarcity. More trading volume equals more fees, which in turn fuels more burns.
• Team members say it aligns long-term holders with protocol growth, though skeptics call it optics over substance.
• WLFI trades at 23 cents with a $6.39 billion market cap, down 24% on the day and far below the futures-market valuations above $40 billion seen at launch.
• A community-backed governance proposal is also circulating to stake 80% of WLFI’s locked supply into pools, with rewards drawn from a 20% community reserve. Proponents say it turns idle tokens into productive assets; critics say it’s token recycling.
• WLFI’s debut has been marred by security issues. Hackers exploited Ethereum’s EIP-7702 “delegate contract” feature to drain tokens from unsuspecting wallets in what security researchers called a phishing-style exploit.
• Victims describe losing most of their allocations. One investor said they salvaged only 20% of their holdings before attackers siphoned the rest.
• SlowMist founder Yu Xian warned the exploit triggers as soon as compromised users attempt transfers, redirecting funds to attacker wallets.
• Scams multiplied alongside the exploit: Bubblemaps flagged WLFI “bundled clones,” while phishing links spread across Telegram and X, further trapping early retail buyers.
• The dual shock of price collapse and technical exploits underscores WLFI’s fragile launch dynamics, with insider-driven supply, governance controversies and external security risks converging to test the project’s viability.

Derivatives Positioning

By Omkar Godbole

• Crypto futures bets worth $370 million have been liquidated by exchanges in the past 24 hours as the bitcoin price bounced, confounding expectations for a move lower.
• The liquidation led to a decline in open interest (OI) in futures tied to most of the top 10 tokens, excluding BTC. Open interest in BTC increased by over 1%, a sign of fresh capital inflows.
• XRP printed a “spinning bottom” candle on Monday, hinting at a potential bull reversal. However, OI in USD and USDt-denominated perpetuals on major exchanges fell by 5.69% alongside anemic spot trading volume. The action weakens the case for a sustained recovery.
• Perpetual funding rates on an eight-hour basis for BTC, ETH, and other major cryptocurrencies are hovering just above zero, indicating a slight bias toward longs.
• On the CME, positioning in BTC futures remains light, alongside a near-record OI of 2 million ETH in ether futures.
• On Deribit, BTC options reflect downside concerns, with puts trading at a premium to calls out to December expiry. Ether options also exhibit a put bias, but not as pronounced as those of BTC. Options tied to SOL and XRP signal stronger demand for upside exposure.
• BTC block flows have been slightly bearish, with traders picking up the September expiry $105K put and writing the $135K call in the October expiry, alongside put calendar spreads. In ETH’s case, puts at $3,800 and $4,200 were lifted.

Market Movements

U.S. markets were closed on Monday due to the Labor Day holiday.

• BTC is down 1.37% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $110,373.12 (24hrs: +1.63%)
• ETH is down 2.49% at $4,395.87 (24hrs: -0.32%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 2.37% at 4,013.17 (24hrs: +0.71%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 23 bps at 3.05%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0084% (9.1794% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.61% at 98.37
• Gold futures are up 0.91% at $3,548.00
• Silver futures are up 1.72% at $41.42
• Nikkei 225 closed up 0.29% at 42,310.49
• Hang Seng closed down 0.47% at 25,496.55
• FTSE is down 0.42% at 9,157.55
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.49% at 5,340.51
• DJIA closed on Friday down 0.2% at 45,544.88
• S&P 500 closed down 0.64% at 6,460.26
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.15% at 21,455.55
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.46% at 28,564.45
• S&P 40 Latin America closed on Monday unchanged at 2,768.90
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 5.9 bps at 4.285%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.47% at 6,442.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.60% at 23,320.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.37% at 45,432.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 58.48% (-0.26%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03985 (0.89%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 990 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $54.46
• Total fees: 9.44 BTC / $1,027,595
• CME Futures Open Interest: 137,030 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 31.7 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 8.91%

Technical Analysis

• The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) is carving out a head-and-shoulders topping pattern.
• A potential move below the horizontal support line would confirm the bearish trend change, offering risk-off cues to tech stocks, including cryptocurrencies.
• The fund includes companies like NVIDIA, Microsoft and Apple, as well as others involved in internet software, IT services, semiconductors and technology hardware.

Crypto Equities

U.S. markets were closed on Monday due to the Labor Day holiday.

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $304.54 (-1.27%), +0.3% at $305.45
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $131.98 (+0.79%), +0.61% at $132.78
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $23.49 (-4.16%), +0.26% at $23.55
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $59.03 (-8.38%), +0.59% at $59.38
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.98 (+0.13%), +0.38% at $16.04
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.76 (-0.29%), +0.22% at $13.79
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.35 (0%), -1.67% at $14.11
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.47 (-0.84%), +0.32% at $9.50
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $30.62 (+3.2%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $25.22 (-3.59%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $334.41 (-1.31%), +1.52% at $339.50
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $29.64 (-3.23%), -0.47% at $29.50
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $17.82 (-3.47%), +1.07% at $18.01
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $7.23 (-10.63%), +2.77% at $7.43
• Mei Pharma (MEIP): closed at $4.86 (-6.54%), +2.26% at $4.97

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$126.7 million
• Cumulative net flows: $54.22 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$164.6 million
• Cumulative net flows: $13.53 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.6 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

• Hyperliquid-listed crypto perpetuals registered a cumulative trading volume of nearly $400 billion in August, the highest on record.
• The tally has grown significantly year-on-year, indicating growing investor preference to seek leverage on-chain.

While You Were Sleeping

• Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Spend 97K BTC in Largest One-Day Move of 2025 (CoinDesk): Wallets holding coins for longer than 155 days are spending nearly 25,000 BTC per day, the fastest rate since January, as many investors view $100,000 as overpriced and are taking profits.
• Gold Price Vaults Past $3,500 to New Record (Financial Times): Investor unease over Fed independence, fading optimism for a swift Ukraine peace deal and strong ETF inflows have added momentum to gold’s rally, with Goldman Sachs projecting $4,000 by mid-2026.
• Trump-Linked World Liberty Team Floats Buyback-and-Burn Plan as WLFI Sinks (CoinDesk): The team proposed using protocol-owned liquidity fees on Ethereum, BSC and Solana to fund continuous buybacks and token burns, aiming to counter oversupply concerns after WLFI token’s shaky debut.
• Nasdaq-Listed Crypto Exchange Group Coincheck Buys Regulated Prime Broker Aplo (CoinDesk): The all-stock deal, whose price wasn’t disclosed, will give the Japan-based exchange a European-regulated unit. The transaction is expected to close in October.
• Smiles and Clasped Hands as Xi, Putin and Modi Try to Signal Unity (The New York Times): At the Tianjin summit, President Xi Jinping pushed a China-led world order while Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi leaned closer to Russia and China amid U.S. tariff tensions, though analysts note deep divisions remain.
• UK Markets Slide as Debt Angst Drives 30-Year Yield to 1998 High (Bloomberg): A sell-off in 30-year gilts tied to inflation and fiscal worries pushed sterling 1.3% lower to $1.3376 and forced renewed scrutiny of Prime Minister Kier Starmer’s economic plans.

In the Ether