By Omkar Godbole (all times ET unless stated otherwise)

DeFi coins are in the spotlight as bitcoin BTC$112,676.83 and ether (ETH) notch modest gains ahead of Tuesday’s big jobs revisions data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which are expected to reveal a much weaker job market in the year ended March 2025.

Usually, weak jobs data means more Fed rate cuts — and that’s bullish for BTC. But there’s more to the story: BTC might be king, but it doesn’t yield anything. That’s where decentralized finance comes into the play, offering returns on idle coins through lending and borrowing protocols. This makes DeFi coins all the more attractive as rate-cut bets heat up.

Arthur Hayes, founder of Maelstrom, nailed it: “DeFi will get some of this cash searching for yield.” He pointed to Ethena’s sUSDe token, boasting a solid 7% yield, as a top beneficiary of the impending Fed rate cuts.

So, keep an eye out for DeFi, which is already showing signs of strength.

The CoinDesk DeFi Select Index (DFX) has jumped 3% in the past 24 hours, standing out as one of the top-performing crypto subsectors alongside the CoinDesk Memecoin and Metaverse Select Indices and the CoinDesk 80 Index. The broader CoinDesk 20 Index has gained a 1.6%.

Within DeFi, decentralized exchange tokens are stealing the show. HYPE surged 9% in 24 hours, pushing its seven-day gains to 22%. Even more eye-catching is lesser-known DEX MYX Finance’s native token, MYX, which exploded with a staggering 260% gain in just one day — yes, you read that right.

Adding to the bullish signals, TradingView’s DeFi dominance index has climbed to 3.49%, the highest since early February, underscoring growing appetite for DeFi assets in the current market environment.

Other sectors could gain as well. Most analysts expect retail investors to pull capital from money market funds and channel it into stocks and crypto alike as the Fed begins to cut rates.

But there’s a catch. If the rate cut occurs alongside worsening economic conditions, then investors may retain money market investments, which are highly liquid and considered safe. So, keep an eye on the economic data, particularly the U.S. producer price index on Wednesday and the consumer price index on Thursday. Both could add to inflation concerns.

The political situation in Europe, particularly in France, and Japan and resulting bond market jitters could also destabilize markets. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
  • Sept. 9: Shares of SOL Strategies (HODL) are expected to start trading on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker symbol STKE. OTCQB trading as CYFRF will end, and shares will continue on the Canadian Securities Exchange as HODL.
  • Sept. 10, 9:15 a.m.: Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan V. Gould will talk about digital assets at the CoinDesk: Policy & Regulation Conference in Washington.
• Macro
  • Sept. 9, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases August consumer price inflation data.
    • Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.31%
    • Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 4.21% vs. Prev. 4.23%
    • Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.06% vs. Prev. 0.27%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3.58% vs. Prev. 3.51%
  • Sept. 9, 10 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary annual benchmark revision to employment data.
    • Nonfarm Payrolls Annual Revision Prev. -818K
  • Sept. 10, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases August consumer price inflation data.
    • Inflation Rate MoM Est. -0.15% vs. Prev. 026%
    • Inflation Rate YoY Eat. 5.1% vs. Prev. 5.23%
  • Sept. 10, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases August producer price inflation data.
    • Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.9%
    • Core PPI YoY Est. 3.5% vs. Prev. 3.7%
    • PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.9%
    • PPI YoY Est. 3.3% vs. Prev. 3.3%
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Sept. 9: GameStop (GME), post-market, $0.19

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Uniswap DAO is voting on an updated Unichain-USDS Growth Plan to accelerate adoption through performance-based incentives and DAO-guided distribution. The proposal introduces minimum KPIs, a “no result, no reward” model. Voting ends Sept. 9.
  • Goldfinch DAO is voting on the Goldfinch Foundation’s annual budget of $400,000 and 200,000 GFI, as well as an additional $70,000 and 100,000 GFI in returnable market-making liquidity. Voting ends Sept. 10.
  • Compound DAO is voting on extending its COMP yield strategy with MYSO’s decentralized protocol and scaling it up to $9 million worth of tokens, targeting a 15% annual yield for the DAO. Voting ends Sept. 11.
  • Hyperliquid to vote on who issues its USDH stablecoin. Major contenders include Paxos, Frax and a coalition involving Agora and MoonPay. Voting takes place Sept. 14.
• Unlocks
  • Sept. 9: Sonic (S) to unlock 5.02% of its circulating supply worth $46.02 million.
  • Sept. 11: Aptos APT$4.5178 to unlock 2.2% of its circulating supply worth $50.89 million.
  • Sept. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 5.98% of its circulating supply worth $17.01 million.
  • Sept. 15: Sei SEI$0.3169 to unlock 1.18% of its circulating supply worth $17.8 million.
  • Sept. 16: Arbitrum ARB$0.5344 to unlock 2.03% of its circulating supply worth $49.12 million.
• Token Launches
  • Sept. 9: Avantis (AVNT) to be listed on Binance Alpha, Bybit, KuCoin, MEXC, Gate.io, and others.
  • Sept. 10: Linea (LINEA) to be listed on Binance Alpha, KuCoin, MEXC, KuCoin, Bitget OKX, CoinW, and others.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation Conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB15 for 15% off your registration.

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

• Sam Altman-founded Worldcoin WLD$2.1121 continued its ascent on Tuesday, taking another leg up to notch a 51% gain over 24 hours and 122% over the past week.
• The most recent rise followed Eightco Holdings’ (OCTO) Monday announcement of a $250 million private placement, paving the way for a worldcoin treasury strategy.
• It’s worth noting that treasury strategy announcements for other tokens prompted muted upside, for example a $1.65 billion raise to form a solana SOL$217.51 treasury on Monday led to a gain of just 1.7% over 24 hours, suggesting additional catalysts behind the WLD move.
• WLD trading volume surged to $3.7 billion in 24 hours, a 250% rise on the previous day and a 2,000% rise from Friday’s total.
• From a technical perspective, the WLD price has broken out of an eight-month range that had it suppressed with a median at around $1.00. It is expected to drop back to test $1.62 before potentially revisiting the $2.00 mark.
• The rally comes amid a backdrop of wider altcoin strength; the CoinMarketCap altcoin season index is at 57/100 as it approaches its highest point this year, indicating that further upside may be on the cards if crypto majors BTC and ETH can continue to drive away from critical levels of support.

Derivatives Positioning

By Omkar Godbole

• The market remains calm despite Friday’s payroll data reigniting concerns about the risk of stagflation. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility, as measured by Volmex’s BVIV, has eased to 38% from 44% at the end of August. Ether’s volatility index, EVIV, slipped to 66%, backing off from its August peak of 77%.
• The one-day implied volatility indices for both the two largest cryptocurrencies remain little changed, signaling no signs of panic ahead of Tuesday’s announcement by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is expected to revise payroll figures downward for earlier this year.
• Open interest (OI) in futures tied to the top 20 tokens has increased in the last 24 hours, indicating capital inflows. The biggest inflows are into WLD, ENA, SOL, DOGE and XRP. OI in BTC futures has increased by nearly 3%.
• Solana stands out on the CME, with futures OI hitting a record high of 6.82 million SOL and an annualized three-month premium of over 15%, which is almost double those of BTC and ETH.
• Traders are continuing to withdraw capital from CME’s bitcoin futures, while open interest in ether futures is extending its descent from recent highs. Positioning in CME options tied to bitcoin and ether remains elevated, indicating hedging demand.
• On Deribit, the bearish bias for BTC puts has softened but remains noticeable, even as the spot price has bounced close to $113,000. The same can be said for ether.
• Block flows at OTC desk Paradigm show long positions in September puts combined with writing of upside calls, reflecting traders’ continued caution and reluctance to fully commit to an upside breakout.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 0.8% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $112,972.37 (24hrs: +0.86%)
• ETH is up 1.68% at $4,359.91 (24hrs: +0.72%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 1.45% at 4,158.99 (24hrs: +1.66%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 3 bps at 2.84%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0068% (7.446% annualized) on KuCoin

• DXY is down 0.19% at 97.27
• Gold futures are up 0.4% at $3,692.10
• Silver futures are up 0.35% at $41.57
• Nikkei 225 closed down 0.42% at 43,459.29
• Hang Seng closed up 1.19% at 25,938.13
• FTSE is up 0.1% at 9,230.32
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.16% at 5,354.02
• DJIA closed on Monday up 0.25% at 45,514.95
• S&P 500 closed up 0.21% at 6,495.15
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.45% at 21,798.70
• S&P/TSX Composite closed unchanged at 29,027.73
• S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 2,802.69
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 1.5 bps at 4.061%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.12% at 6,513.75
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.22% at 23,851.25
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 45,581.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 58.19% (-0.26%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03859 (0.39%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 983 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $52.7
• Total fees: 3.99 BTC / $446,538
• CME Futures Open Interest: 133,255 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 31 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 8.77%

Technical Analysis

• BTC’s hourly chart shows that prices are looking to break out of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.
• The move above the neckline (the dashed line) would expose resistance at $117,439.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $302.2 (+1.05%), unchanged in pre-market
• Circle (CRCL): closed at $112.46 (-1.83%), +1.12% at $113.72
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.22 (+3.11%), -2.19% at $23.69
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $50.12 (-4.26%), +5.19% at $52.72
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.2 (+0.07%), unchanged in pre-market
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.44 (+1.13%), -1.04% at $13.30
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.93 (+2.28%), -2.94% at $13.52
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.17 (-0.76%), +0.87% at $9.25
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $29.69 (+0.81%), -0.27% at $29.61
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $26.3 (+9.45%), -7.03% at $24.45

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $329.9 (-1.78%), -0.33% at $328.80
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $28.29 (+0.6%), unchanged in pre-market
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $15.67 (+4.92%), -3.06% at $15.19
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $5.66 (-6.29%), +4.42% at $5.91
• Mei Pharma (MEIP): closed at $3 (-29.08%), +1.67% at $3.05

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: 364.3 million
• Cumulative net flows: $54.83 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$96.7 million
• Cumulative net flows: $12.64 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.39 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

• The chart by DeFiLlama shows weekly trading volumes in perpetuals listed on decentralized exchange MYX Finance.
• Volumes have significantly increased since April, reaching a high of $2.56 billion in mid-August. This partially explains the price rally in the DEX’s native token.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether